Thursday, May 7, 2009

More Accurate Star Predictions

Hi, this is Todd Yellin, Director of Product Management, and Jon Sanders, Director of Recommendation Systems, here at Netflix. We’re pleased to announce that we have improved the way we predict the movies you’re going to love. We’ve deployed a new algorithm that allows us to make more accurate guesses at how much our members will enjoy each movie in our the vast Netflix catalog. We are indebted to the Netflix Prize contestants who made these improvements possible, and who continue to innovate in this area. (If you’re not familiar with the Netflix Prize, it’s kind of like “Who Wants to Be A Millionaire” for data miners. Read about it here: http://www.netflixprize.com/ )

Members who rate movies will now receive better guidance on how many stars they’re likely to give movies they haven’t seen (aka “our best guess for you”). These star predictions influence the movies we feature on many pages of the Netflix website, in particular in the Movies You’ll Love area. For most members the effect of the new algorithm will be subtle, and we hope rewarding. In the coming months we’ll be testing ways to use these improved star predictions so our members can create even more personalized websites that make it faster and easier to explore the more than 100,000 titles available on DVD and Blu-ray disc and the more than 12,000 streaming titles at Netflix.

Enjoy the movies!

381 comments:

  1. But still no half-stars. I am sad.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I have rated more than 13,000 films and have been waiting for this improvement for years.

    Thank you so much.

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  3. Is there a way you could list what trailers are on a dvd? I've rented dvds recently and wished I'd have written down the names of movies I saw in the trailers.

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  4. Hi Netflix folks,

    Here's a feature you should offer as part of your service!

    Just spoke on the phone w/one of your helpful customer service reps and she confirmed that you don't have this feature built into the Web site.

    My husband and I share an account. I'm the principal user of the account and go onto the site more than he does.

    I want a way to send him an email from the site which says, in effect: "Here's what's in our queue right now. Is this what you want??"

    Ideally, the email would have a link that would enable him to click and get back into our account on the site. And then search for other movies and modify our queue.

    Make sense??

    Seems like an obvious benefit for your many customers who are "sharing" accounts.

    Please let us know if this is something you can work on.

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  5. Another feature that I think would be benificial would be to have instant stream movies that are expiring soon show some type of symbol on the ROKU signifying the expiration

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  6. A feature I would love to see related to this, would be an easy way to reorganize your queue based on the predicted star rating.

    I get one movie at a time yet have a queue of over 200 moves. Clearly I'll never get to the end, yet I have a hard time removing movies from the list. So every once and a while I go through and try to rearange the list based on the predicted star rating so I can at least see the ones I'm most likely going to enjoy. But this process takes a good 1-2hrs, so I don't do it as often as I would like.

    ReplyDelete
  7. is there a way to recommend a movie netflix should carry?

    Window to Paris is one of the top ten films from the 90's from Russia. I wonder why you don't carry it? Blockbuster has it and I have had about 20 people see it and they all love it

    ReplyDelete
  8. I have 1661 suggestions based on 4370 ratings. I used to get anywhere from 5-10 suggestions before the "taste preferences" and they were pretty accurate. 1661 is way too many suggestions and, quite frankly, they seem to be random. I'd love to clear them all out (without having to manually do it) and go back to having handful at a time.

    Anyone having this issue?

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  9. I would prefer the option to not have the star ratings try to guess what I'd think, but rather be a reflection of the Netflix membership raters at large. When you make the guess that I'd give a film a one star rating that everyone else gave three or more stars, that gives me a deceptive impression of the overall quality of the film when I'm scanning film titles.

    The reality is, my tastes are eclectic enough that a computer algorithm is not going to be able to read my mind. That is clear from the film suggestions I'm often given by Netflix.

    I'd also like to join those who are asking for the ability to add half stars to our ratings.

    ReplyDelete
  10. I'd like to see a top 50 list of watch instantly titles from the last week, month, all time. Would help me in deciding what to add to my instant queue.

    ReplyDelete
  11. I went looking for recommendations today, and Netflix had none. I've been a member for six years, have rented hundreds of movies, and have rated almost 1,800. And Netflix doesn't have enough data to recommend others?

    I then spent twenty minutes going after page after page of genre and subgenre ratings ("Never," "Sometimes," and "Often"). There must have been 200 categories to rate. After I completed this, Netflix still had no recommendations.

    ReplyDelete
  12. NETFLIX does not carry a movie calle "Rapa Nui". It is about Easter Island and Jason Scott Lee is in it.

    This is the only place I have found to REQUEST A MOVIE NETFLIX DOES NOT HAVE.

    WTFudge?

    ReplyDelete
  13. When, oh when, are you going to start including close captions and subtitles on your instant watch movies so that the deaf members of netflix may enjoy all that they are paying for?

    ReplyDelete
  14. My biggest problem with ratings is with movies watched instantly. Because other profiles on the account can't watch instantly, my daughter has to watch using my profile. We have extremely different tastes in movies, and I'm constantly being asked by Netflix to rate movies I not only haven't seen, but would never watch. Then movies are recommended based on my "interest" in these movies I don't want to see. If you want to improve rating accuracy, enable watching instantly for all profiles.

    ReplyDelete
  15. On the subject of Predictions. Why does almost every search, no matter what the word (i.e. Underworld, recently), come up with The Water Horse: Legend of the Deep?

    ReplyDelete
  16. 2 things:

    1. The "Movies you might enjoy..." algorithm needs some serious work. Today it's suggesting a slew of action and romantic comedies that I don't usually rent, and don't usually rate highly. In fact, Netflix is even telling me that "people like me" typically give these movies (and there are a TON of them listed) about 2 stars. Here's a screen cap.2. Sadly, it looks to me like no one from Netflix is actually bothering to monitor the comments on your blog, given that the fourth comment here (from 5 days ago) quotes a few words from a previous comment and then concludes with a massive spam link with names of female celebrities.

    Testing, 1 - 2 - 3 ...is this thing on???

    ReplyDelete
  17. I don't understand why the Top View Instantly movies were removed from the View Instantly nav. I normally use this to browse (I first check out new arrivals, then top movies) and without I feel like I don't have a clear idea of what's available. Especially since not all new arrivals show up in that section. Take Serenity for example. I check it everyday and I never saw it show up however, it appeared in the top list. Please bring it back!!

    ReplyDelete
  18. Can you explain how your algorithm thinks that my interest in "As Time Goes By" ( a british sitcom involving two older lovers re-found each other much later in life and rekindled their romance)means that I ALSO have an interest in watching a National Geographic special on the pyramids?!?!? Seriously...it was recommended on that basis......not even close *insert eyeroll here* absolutely useless...

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  19. I'm seeing the same complaint I have, so I'll add my voice. Those of us that do not want a site to try to predict our taste don't simply find it unhelpful, but in fact, react with revulsion to the practice. How about letting us switch that feature off? I can't bear to log on and have a slew of teen coming of age movies and sappy chick flicks be the first thing I am slammed with when I open Netflix- but my daughter watched Princess Diaries or some such fluff, and no matter how many times I wade through all the preference choices, I can't make some iteration of that category GO AWAY. I don't want to be greeted with a page expecting my interaction. I don't want "rate this" "you'll like this" forced on me. I want to mind my own business and surf where I will, and engage in "interaction" only at my choosing. Its like a diner waitress that won't shut up and go away before your first cup of coffee is cold.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Two things:

    1. PleaseOhPLEASE -- HALF STARS! (3 1/2 and 4 1/2 are the two most needed, but I'll take a 2 1/2 and 1 1/2 too.)

    2. I would really like to have a way to change my home page to include my friends feed. I go straight to my friends page daily to see what they have seen/rated, etc. I would find it more useful to have it on the front!

    ReplyDelete
  21. cant find a movie suggestion link so ill just post it here... they should add the purple people eater!!!! i useto Love that movie was upset when i searched for it and couldn't find it

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  22. Half stars would be handy. Also, there is no "Meh" rating -- it goes directly from Liked It to Didn't Like It. There are many movies that are just OK, but I wouldn't determine between liked and didn't like.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Annoyed & FrustratedMay 13, 2009 at 5:51 PM

    Does anyone know how to ACTUALLY get ahold of someone at Netflix when there is a problem???? All phone lines give busy signals ....Is there an email address somewhere???

    ReplyDelete
  24. HEY where are the WI Movies?!!May 13, 2009 at 8:51 PM

    WHERE ARE ALL THE WATCH INSTANTLY MOVIES?
    i see most of the WI movies as 'unavailable' now. Why the h@ll has this happenned? NETFLix has not even sent an email stating why this is so!??

    ReplyDelete
  25. dear netflix:: how come your shiznit is broke so bad today and you are not using this blog to address the issue?

    ReplyDelete
  26. Where have you put all my streaming movies?

    ReplyDelete
  27. They are probably setting up an "access charge" for online streaming movies.

    ReplyDelete
  28. I am not getting predictions for any movie? All I see is the Member Average!

    I have rated a total of 3,188 movies as of now, and now I see only Member Average ratings.

    Where is my personalized predictions gone?

    ReplyDelete
  29. I'd take seeing average ratings any day - haha, trade??

    I don't like having my stars predicted for me. Or if they are, have it when I click in/hover on a movie.

    ReplyDelete
  30. They need to add an option next to "not interested" that says "I own it". The system keeps suggesting movies I enjoy and already own. I don;t want to mess with the predictions (which work well for me so far) but would like to stop having it suggest movies I own.

    ReplyDelete
  31. Half stars would be nice.

    ReplyDelete
  32. Great, how do I get this feature back. It hasn't been working for me for weeks now.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Half star ratings are a must.

    I would definitely be pleased if this could get implemented. And I certainly would not mind going through the 900 movies I've already rated and rerating them more specifically.

    There are times when I watch a movie and I don't want to give it 3 stars and I don't want to give it 2 stars. I didn't like it, but I didn't dislike it either. And so I feel that giving it a 2 or a 3 will will skew recommendations of similar movies to a side I don't necessarily agree with.

    Half stars. Half stars. Half stars!

    ReplyDelete
  34. I am further wondering how the algorithm would respond if I rate a movie with 2 stars based solely on my opinion of the film - not the actors or genre. For example, I thought Hancock stunk. But I'm reluctant to rate it accordingly because I don't want Netflix to cease recommending Will Smith or superhero-related movies. Anyone authoritative know if this would be the case?

    ReplyDelete
  35. Jim in RochesterMay 22, 2009 at 5:14 AM

    I wish it were easier to see the "Member Average" rating than the "Our best guess for you" rating, in my queue, for example, or on a movie's page. In other words, I'd rather see the gray stars than the red stars. I've discovered over time that the member average is a better indicator of what I'm going to like than Netflix's predictor algorithm.

    I don't like types of movies, I like good movies, of many different types, and the Netflix algorithms seem to be based on types rather than quality. How any individual will perceive quality is impossible to quantify or predict, which is why any type-based algorithm is going to fail miserably. Taking an average of all users comes closer to being useful than trying to guess what I'm going to like. I don't even know myself until I see it; how can a computer ever guess better than I can myself, regardless of how it processes data?

    This is my only real complaint about Netflix, except for the impossibility of contacting them directly online, but maybe somebody at Netflix will read this.

    ReplyDelete
  36. I know the 1/2 star issue has been visited previously; however, all we need is one rating that offers a half star. There really must be a 2.5 rating. Right now you either have to dislike or like a movie. There is nothing in between. There are quite a few movies I don't necessarily like, but I didn't dislike either.

    ReplyDelete
  37. As far as recommendations go, if you're not getting any Suggestions, go back and rate some movies that you really enjoyed, 5 stars. Also, take away some Not Interested ratings.
    Someone made mention, and showed a Screen Capture of the recommendations, saying they might enjoy these titles that Netflix said they'd give only two stars to. I have to believe that they have not rated many 4 and 5 star movies. It's hard for Netflix to determine what you'd like if you haven't told it many movies that you DID like.

    And as far as half-stars go, Netflix has said publicly on a couple of occasions that when they've tested half-stars previously, they get less people rating movies, which is, of course, very important to their service. That's at least what they said their studies showed.

    Walt D in LV
    I currently have 7645 ratings, and 3144 Suggestions. Of my ratings, about 2500 are Not Interesteds where I've gone to whole categories, such as Anime or sports like Hockey and Wrestling and marked the lot of 'em Not Interested. I am just never going to watch the WWF event from 1995.
    That being said, the Movies You'll Love page, for me, shows quite a few movies that I'm VERY interested in seeing.

    ReplyDelete
  38. I would be very interested to have a way to see the movies that someone hated. I find that it reveals more about the taste of that person than what they loved.

    ReplyDelete
  39. There are some of us who do NOT want to be second-guessed about how well we would like a future movie. How about just listing the movie without telling me that I'd like it three-stars worth or whatever. I don't like to be influenced by your mysterious algorithm. And while we're at it, I find the screen called "Movies You'll Also Like" irritating. Most of them are orthogonal to whatever I just selected. Is it possible to eliminate those two features from my account? Sally Stiffler

    ReplyDelete
  40. Half stars, and/or renaming the stars would be great. As someone else said, 3 stars is liked it and 2 stars is didn't like it, there is no in between. If not half stars then how about 0 stars for hated it, 1 star for didn't like it, 2 for okay/fair, 3 for liked it, 4 for really liked it, 5 for loved it.
    The rating system drives me crazy and sometimes I don't even want to rate the film if it's between a 2 and 3 because I didn't really LIKE it but I didn't, "didn't like it".

    ReplyDelete
  41. Your rating system if really falty. There is no way to note that your opinion of a movie is that the film was "just o.k.". That is a big category of your offerings. Many of your films don't qualify for 'didn't like', nor do they capture an 'liked it' rating. There's films that are simply o.k. not bad or a total waste of time, but not really good enough that you can say that you liked the overall.
    You ought to add a category that notes neutral, ambivalent feelings.
    I saw 2 films like that this week. One was Madagascar 2, and the other was the Curious Case of Benjamin Button. Both were just okay, but I couldn't note that.

    ReplyDelete
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  43. There also needs to be a better way of really seeing "new releases" and what is coming out! Even a tab for movies w/ four stars etc. and a tab for movies that came out in 2008, 2009.

    I get really frustrated in trying to find movies that I may not remember or that are really new. This has happened several times. My best way to find movies now seems to access the movie site for my area n get the reviews then go to netflix and type them in. This area should definitely be more user friendly. If I went to the theater all the time I wouldn't need to subscribe to netflix!

    Thanks & hope you take this into serious consideration,

    June 29th,2009

    ReplyDelete
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  45. Your new system does not work very well. The categories are ludicrous and misleading and the so called improvements over the last two years make it more difficult to find movies as opposed to easier. What kind of category is feel good or tearjerker? What was wrong with plain drama? Also, who really care what is most popular? Anywhere. Let the renter decide rather than trying to push them in the wrong direction. Clicking on the not interested box has no effect at all as the same movie comes back up every time I go on your site. Gail Hendrix member since 2001

    ReplyDelete
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  48. I am receiving far too many unplayable discs, probably approaching ten percent. Instead of trying to sell me additional services, why not concentrate on delivering what you promised, playable discs.

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  50. Umm what happened to the compare stars? It used to show what the current rating from everyone is, and then it showed what you were likely to give it. I liked this. I like to know how my tastes vary from the general public. Bring it back please.

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  51. spartan81 said.... Why don"t you have any of the new released, movies that come out on on demand, that are release from theaters. your selection is behind data.lots of great new movies you guys need to update.

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  58. Is there a way to turn off the personalized ratings? Right now when I see a list of movies and it shows me the number of stars, it is showing me the best guess of my preferences. I'd like to see the member average instead.

    I get the feeling my personalized ratings is skewed by the fact that I dislike and rate down movies that show fur or cruelty to animals or that features actors that are closely associated with cruelty (fur and hunting).

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  59. If you want to improve rating accuracy, enable watching instantly for all profiles.

    ReplyDelete
  60. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  62. The rate doesn't make the improvemen. This is what I noticed, There is something else I do not understand it?

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  64. Cool GF uses this a lot when choosing movies for us

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  65. Half stars are NEEDED to be accurate about what we ACTUALLY think about a movie. How does Netflix not address this!?

    ReplyDelete
  66. I too vote for half stars. What is the logic in saying that viewers like you gave it 2.8 stars when you know that such a rating by an individual is impossible? Creating an average of ratings isn't effective because it creates a disconnect between the predictions and the experience of actually rating movies. The justification of more people rating movies in inconsistent ways because they can't properly express their tastes, versus less, but more descriptive ratings, seems like a poor trade off.

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  68. I'm pretty ticked off with the time I've wasted filling out surveys and movie ranking for netflix with nothing to show for it. I've filled out my movie preferences in great detail. I've rated 2134 movies so far and I still get "Rate more movies so we can help you find movies you'll love" when I click on movie's I'll love. I'd settle for them at least tossing out ideas for movies I wouldn't hate, dilbert comic strips, celebrity jeopardy movie clips - anything is better than "Rate more movies so we can help you find movies you'll love" after you spend that much time giving them information.

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  69. Half stars are important because honestly many of your picks for me are off base. I may pick 1 out of 20. I also do not want to see movies I have already rated in my suggestions. If I want to see a movie again I can search for it. It is a waste of my time to look through suggestions of movies I have already rated(seen). More trailers would also be helpful. Final easier ways to leave comments without making a call or searching blog topics. I became a fan on FB so I could leave a comment, you erased it aminute later. I am not a fan. Don't be like Yahoo unreachable.

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